Dangerous regional meddling following coup

The events unfolding in Egypt are troubling and potentially catastrophic if not brought under control soon. The death toll is steadily rising as millions of pro and anti Morsi supporters continue to protest in the streets.

I read an article today to try to better understand what is happening because I find it difficult to imagine how a democratically elected leader can be pushed out of office after just one year in power. I knew it could not simply be the work of the protesters in Tahrir square. What I learned is that a lot of the government bureaucratic machine in Egypt, formed during the Mubarak era and inherited by Morsi, are still led by opponents to Morsi's government. Consequently, many services, such as subsidized energy resources and security (police) were not functioning efficiently during Morsi's year-long tenure, leading to anger among the populace.  This was a predictable domestic challenge for the new government.

Even more concerning, I learned that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already announced support for the recently announced interim government, and have pledged billion of dollars in foreign aid. Meanwhile, Qatar and Turkey were, according to this NYT article, key backers of the Morsi regime. What this means is that multiple regional powers are getting involved in a very major way in Egypt's domestic political issues. This is dangerous because, like in Somalia, when foreign influences get involved in support or opposition of political factions, differences exacerbate and a negotiated agreement becomes less possible. Remember the Aideed vs. Ali Mahdi competition which resulted in the civil war? The tragedy is this usually ends in a lot of bloodshed.

Egyptians need to resolve Egypt's problems without being held down by regional power politics. President Morsi was elected democratically, so if the new government wants to maintain legitimacy and stability, it will need to hold immediate free elections. Only then can we gauge the will of the Egyptian people.

Is China in Africa a new form of colonization?

China has overtaken the World Bank to become the top lender to African countries, having committed nearly $75 billion to the continent in the last decade. Why exactly is China so interested in Africa all of a sudden? I think the biggest reason is, as China's economy grows, its enormous population's need for resources is also growing, and thats where African nations appear attractive. 

China invests in African countries that have some sort of natural resource that would benefit it. eg: in exchange for access to Gabon's iron ore reserves, China's developing railroad and port infrastructure. This sort of interaction happens across Africa, and some call it a "resources-for-infrastructure" model. Chinese officials say it is a mutually beneficial interaction, but some critics call it a new form of colonization.

There are a number of problems that have arisen with China's activities, leading some African populations to become skeptical. China has been criticized for low labor safety standards, poor quality of buildings, roads and other infrastructure, counterfeit products, and land grabs following projects. There are also complaints that China brings laborers from abroad, rather than employing local laborers.

But we cannot ignore the positives here. There are tangible infrastructure benefits to China's engagement - just look at how Chinese built roads have had a positive impact on transportation and commerce in Kenya. China is investing in places where many avoid - including DRC and Somalia; China gave millions in military aid to the AMISOM peacekeeping forces in Somalia. Complete facts and figures on China's investments in Africa, however, are unknown.

China's economic interest in Africa is clear but political motives are yet unclear. It seems China has a deliberately un-political relationship with African countries. This can be positive in some cases, allowing for more sovereign decision making by governments, but also has downsides. Unlike Western countries, China does not emphasize good governance and anti-corruption in its engagement with officials. This is why undemocratic governments in particular prefer working with China. Nevertheless, these governments should recognize the huge importance of good governance and anti-corruption for their own national development and progress, regardless of outside pressure.

Jubbaland Mess

There are currently five men who are claiming to be president of newly founded Jubbaland State in southern Somalia. This was at last count but the number could have gone up. What is happening in Jubbaland is confusing for a lot of people, including myself, but it gets back to the fundamental problem of Somalia's political development.

Ultimately, Somalia will have a federal system of governance, with regional governments taking on key leadership roles. Gone is the era of Siyad Barre-style strong central government. We now are in the era of Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, Hiiraan State, Himeen and Heeb, Khaatumo, Jubbaland etc etc. But as governance decentralizes, the country still needs centralization for key diplomatic, security and other national-level functions.

The current government of President Hassan Sheikh appears to be serious about realizing a viable federal state system in Somalia. The Prime Minister and President frequently visit the regions and seek to be involved in dialogue on local issues, from Somaliland to Jubbaland. Jubbaland in recent months has become a huge mess for the federal government and everyone else involved. From the time that Kenyan troops entered Jubbaland in late 2011, it was clear that this piece of strategic land would be contentious.

At play in Jubbaland are numerous interests, including diverse clan interests, Kenyan, Ethiopian and IGAD involvement, and the central government's role. As the various actors push and pull for leverage in the formation of Jubbaland, tensions are surfacing and are causing problems in Mogadishu. This months effort to remove the Prime Minister through a no-confidence vote in Parliament is linked to the Jubbaland dispute. With five recently declared presidents of Jubbaland, its clear that talks to form a representative government have failed. IGAD (Kenya and Ethiopia) has its preferred candidate, who it is supporting vigorously. Clan tensions as well as regional tensions are flaring up.

Ideally the federal government should be taking the lead in organizing the Jubbaland political process. IGAD has had a unusually high level of involvement in the Jubbaland issue, organizing multiple conferences. IGAD is a regional actor and should respect the sovereignty of the Somali government, and should not side-step the federal government to push a particular candidate. The federal government needs to be more assertive in its role and quell the confusion in Jubbaland before it flares up into greater fragmentation, or even violence.

FDI and a Mogadishu luxury resort

I read a Wall Street Journal article " A bet on peace for war-torn Somalia." I was a bit turned off by the tittle - why does every article about Somalia include the words "war-torn" or something equally negative in it. Nevertheless, I was happy to see an article about Somalia's growing economy; an economy overlooked and undervalued because of the protracted insecurity.

Overall the article is very enlightening - it discusses a new resort being built along Liido beach by an American businessman, Michael Stock. His resort opens this month, and includes a $500 per night villa. Stock says investing in Somalia "is like getting in at the bottom of the stock market." He's right about that. I predict population numbers, property values and demand for infrastructure like resorts will continue to climb, and Stock's investments will pay off. Of course, this all depends on stability and improved security.

The article seems to exaggerate the uniqueness of Stocks investing, at one point calling him "a mini mogul of Mogadishu." The reality is that there are many business moguls in Mogadishu investing in multiple sectors and who have put more into the economy than Stock. He is unique, however, in that he is not ethnic Somali. He's a white guy and he'll definitely face some obstacles including xenophobia, however, his "foreignness" may in some cases be an asset in a city as divided as Mogadishu.

The article also mentioned that Stock hosted Warren Buffet's son in Somalia, and flew him around the country. This is pretty amazing because it shows that more non-Somali investors are starting to look at Somalia. More FDI is critical for a country with such little capital to rapidly grow, and if investors with pockets as deep as Warren Buffet get into the market, it will open the way for much more investment.

Rumi on Somalia

I find the poetry of Jalal ad-Din Muhammad Rumi to be powerful. The 13th century Persian poet had a way with words that resonates within me. His words on love draw me nearer to my love.  Rumi was a Sufi theologian, and his love of God is a strong theme through much of his poetry. He does not comment on political issues, but in the gems of wisdom that he shares, one can gleam valuable lessons.

Below are a few of my favorite quotes that I believe can inspire Somalia and Somalis today.

"The wound is the place where the light enters you"

Somalis have suffered many wounds in recent years - from civil war to gender based violence to famine, among others. They have seen incredible pain and hardship, but the above quote should remind us all that wounds and hardships are where light and wisdom can shine through. Some of the most powerful change agents in Somalia today have suffered incredible personal tragedies, but these wounds have truly made them see more clearly, and made them more willing to sacrifice for their country.

"Where there is ruin, there is hope for a treasure"

The once stunning city of Mogadishu is now in ruins. But since 2011, things have been steadily changing for the better. Al-Shabaab is a dying force and the central government is increasing its reach and productivity. Mogadishu is being re-built at a rapid pace - with construction material pouring in from Asia through Mogadishu port. As people re-build the city and re-build their lives, they should remember that a treasure lies under it all. Natural treasures, human treasures, societal treasures. With hope and hard work, Somalia can be a prosperous and peaceful nation sooner than we thought possible. 

"If you are irritated by every rub, how will your mirror be polished?"

Along the way to stability and prosperity, there will be countless roadblocks. Entrenched local, political, commercial and international interests will block the way towards progress. Some developments and/or compromises may not be popular. But ultimately, revealing these roadblocks is evidence of progress, and will enable the people to deal with them appropriately. As Rumi might have put it, the challenges Somalia will face in re-building will help polish and enhance the ultimate outcome. 

"Let the beauty we love be what we do. There are hundreds of ways to kneel and kiss the ground."

Somalia of 20 years ago is not Somalia today. And the Somalia of today will not be the Somalia of tomorrow. The Somali population needs to recognize differences among the population, especially as diaspora from all over the world move into the country to seek out opportunities. The differences could either lead to clashes or compromises and understanding. Al-Shabaab is the ultimate example of the bloodshed intolerance can cause. Rumi reminds us to appreciate beauty in whatever form it appears.

Jubilance of recognition

In January 2013 the U.S. government officially recognized the Somali government, following 21 years of no recognition. This is big news because it opens the way for increased engagement in Somalia by the U.S., international financial institutions and, ultimately, many other countries that will follow the U.S.'s lead. By recognizing the Somali government, the U.S. has essentially granted legitimacy and placed a degree of faith in the new Somali government to deliver for Somalia. Thus, the recognition is a major policy success for the Somali government, and will open many doors.

More importantly perhaps, it is a symbolic success. I say it is more important as a symbol because a key reason for the failure of multiple Somali governments is the lack of legitimacy and trust in the government by the population. President Hassan Sheikh's government, however, has so far maintained a high degree of popularity, cutting across clan and regional differences. As many Somalis both inside and outside the country already supported the new government, they saw the U.S. decision to recognize the government as another example of success by the government.

President Hassan Sheikh went to Washington and met with President Obama and Secretary Clinton, just as they announced the recognition. He subsequently held multiple events in Somali diaspora communities, including Minnesota. A friend who attended the President's event in Virginia said it was a huge event, with roughly 400 people in attendance - an unprecedented turnout. She said she met some Somalis who came from as far as New York and North Carolina to see the President's speech. She said as Hassan Sheikh spoke, he was frequently interrupted by a jubilant audience as they broke into patriotic songs. Songs that she said many Somalis had not heard in years, including Qolaba Calankeey. They also sang the national anthem, Soomaliya Toosoo, multiple times during the presidents speech. Flags were waving and there was an overwhelming sense of hope in the air. People liked what Hassan Sheikh had to say, particularly his pledge to focus on security and justice.

Interestingly Hassan Sheikh mentioned in his speech that rumors about his government should not be given credence, and he said some elements seek to destroy the popularity of the government through false reports. Maintaining the popularity of the government is important but if President Hassan Sheikh really seeks to maintain it, his government will need to show tangible successes. Because if history tells us anything, its that the Somali population can easily lose faith in an official or system if it does not deliver.

ICAO CACAS continues to take Somali national revenue

All nations have a right to control their airspace. But currently in Somalia, this right is being challenged by a little known aviation authority.

Shortly after the Somali government collapsed, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) decided to help Somalia manage its airspace, and recruited ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization to help provide this service. UNDP and ICAO established the Caretaker Authority for Civil Aviation in Somalia, known as CACAS. The small office has been based in Nairobi since 1997 and has collected aviation fees on behalf of the Somali government, and the money is supposed to be put into a trust fund for Somalia's future authority. The mandate also allows for the revenue to be used for operations (CACAS salaries and expenses), as well as towards infrastructure development so that the inevitable transition from CACAS control to Somali control can take place.

In the past 15 years of its existence, however, there is little evidence that CACAS has done anything to build Somali capacity so that a transition can take place. CACAS has actually been doing the opposite, strengthening its own grip on Somali civil aviation. Why? Because it is a lucrative authority to have. Airliners and nations have paid tens of millions of dollars to CACAS in civil aviation fees over the past 15 years, and this money is largely unaccounted for, apart from the lavish salaries the employees receive. To ICAO's credit, the international body has recently run audits of CACAS's finances and discovered problems. It doesnt appear, however, that ICAO has done anything to fix these problems.

Its time for CACAS to be closed down. Somalia has a new central government, and President Hassan Sheikh has already publicly expressed an interest in reclaiming Somalia's civil aviation from the controversial CACAS body. The Somali government, as well as the Somaliland and Puntland regional governments, already provide civil aviation services and collect civil aviation fees for planes that land in Somali territory.  This means they have some capacity already, and are able to do what CACAS is currently doing more widely. This is not to say they couldn't benefit from some infrastructure support. CACAS argues there is no clear government in Somalia - apparently treating regional governments as equal in legitimacy to the central government. Central governments hold control of civil aviation authorities, but can discuss details of operations and revenue with regional governments.

Somali control over its own civil aviation will be a major victory for the new government for political reasons, but also because it desperately needs domestic revenue.  CACAS, however, will surely fight to delay such a transition, just as any organization would fight for its own survival. Nevertheless its mandate was temporary and if the international community, particularly ICAO and the UN, drag its feet on this issue, the Somali government and population will continue to perceive it as an effort to strip Somalia of its sovereignty and national revenue.