Op-ed on Obama and Somalia policy

This is an op-ed I wrote a few months ago. Its still relevant today, unfortunately, because not much progress has been made in Somalia.


Cleaning the Slate for a New Somalia Policy

The US recently threw its support behind Somalia’s newly appointed president Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, the former chairman of the Islamic Courts Union. Yes, the same Islamic Courts Union that the US-backed Ethiopian army toppled two years ago. What’s with the change of heart?

The Obama administration appears to be making the desperately needed changes to US-Somalia policy, a policy that has been disastrous for both Somalia’s stability and US objectives. Human Rights Watch recently blamed the US-backed Ethiopian occupation and the subsequent insurgency for causing the humanitarian catastrophe that Somalia now faces. The report criticized the Bush administration’s policies for “breeding the very extremism that it is supposed to defeat”. The report went on to say “The new administration of US President Barack Obama should urgently review U.S. policy in Somalia and the broader Horn of Africa and break with the failed approach of his predecessor.”

What are the failed policies that HRW is criticizing? Primarily the support of Ethiopia’s two year long occupation of Somalia. It’s hard to believe the US and Ethiopia thought it possible to impose an unpopular government on the Somali people. Nevertheless, the Bush administration did just that by supporting the installation of the Transitional Federal Government of Abdullahi Yusuf. Because his government was brought in by foreign forces, it fell apart as the Ethiopian army withdrew.

The Bush administration also appeared to follow a policy of state building as a tactic in counter-terrorism in Somalia, a disastrous policy for many reasons. US policy was working off the assumption that failed states are potential safe havens for terrorists, hence the need for state building in Somalia. State building is important to help stabilize the country, but it must be a Somali-led enterprise, and any US engagement should be diplomatic rather than military. Robert Pape’s research revealed suicide terrorism is most common in response to perceptions of foreign occupation. This reveals the potential for military occupations to antagonize and radicalize populations, as it did in Iraq and Somalia.

Establishing a stable, successful government is no easy task for President Sheikh Sharif. Divisive clan-based politics, beginning in the colonial era, has resulted in Somalis being extremely wary of having a leader other than one of their own clan members, for fear of being marginalized or persecuted. Sheikh Sharif will have to work hard towards creating unity and garnering trust from the population.

Sheikh Sharif also faces opposition from multiple factions vying for power within the country, and one particularly troublesome group is the radical group Al-Shabab, a militia which grew strength fighting Ethiopian troops for the past two years. Sheikh Sharif has already been in contact with Al-Shabab leadership, trying to gain their support and avoid unnecessary conflict. The best way for him to alienate extremists and create a stable government is to bridge the divisions among Somali clans, businessmen, civil society and religious leaders. There must be a mechanism for reconciliation and power sharing among the different clan leaders as well as other political groups, and the US can play a role in facilitating such reconciliation.

There is much hope among Americans and Somalis that the Obama administration will have a more intelligent Africa policy in the coming years, one which recognizes the mistakes of the Bush administration so that the failed policies are not repeated. The support of Sheikh Sharif is a positive step, and now we must wait and see if the Obama administration cleans its slate of failed policies, or goes back to the failed policies of the previous administration.