the transition that keeps going

Somalia's transitional process seems to be never ending. The first transitional government (the Transitional National Government) took office in 2001, and here we are in the year 2012 and still have a transitional government in place. As a transition, most states do not recognize it as a full government, which weakens Somalia's ability to engage fully with the international community. The country needs a permanent government to take it forward, but unfortunately must rely on transitional governments (that are increasingly more corrupt and incompetent with each iteration) to lay the groundwork for a new government. 

August 20, 2012 is fast approach - the date by which a new government should be elected. The entire international community seems to be united in calling for the TFG to complete the transitional tasks and elect a new Parliament, which will then elect a new President and Speaker. Somalis around the world are hoping for a fair election and a new and stronger government to take office.

In true Somali form - every Somali man between the ages of 35-65 and who can afford a plane ticket to Mogadishu is running for the Presidency. There are only a handful, however, who have a shot at unseating President Sheikh Sharif -Ambassador Addow, Professor Samatar, Professor Badiyow etc. With his war chest he's accumulated over the years, and the alliances he's built with Speaker Sharif Hassan and other key players, it appears Sheikh Sharif is well placed to buy his way back to the Presidency. 

Just to be clear on my opinion, the reelection of Sheikh Sharif would be a tragedy for Somalia. This is  because today, things are looking up for Somalia. Al-Shabaab is being defeated, commercial activity is picking up, and people are returning back to Somalia from refugee camps, and even from cushy places in Europe and America. There is a sense of hope and renewal that needs to be enhanced by the next government. But almost every Somali I speak with says that this progress is happening in spite of President Sheikh Sharif, and not because of him. Somalis fear the reelection of Sheikh Sharif would mean hopes for progress will be shattered and the Somali government will continue to be run by a small group of corrupt individuals.

Interestingly, one businessman told me if Sheikh Sharif is re-elected, he will pull a lot of his money out of Somalia because he is afraid the economy will collapse.

For many Somalis, any face is better than the same failed face they have had as president for the past four years. Change is possible, Somalis need more positivity and an Obama-like "Yes We Can" campaign. Despite overwhelming odds against the desires of ordinary Somalis, they can have an impact on who becomes the next president. Ordinary Somalis are the Elders, the MPs, the media, the civil society groups - there are lots of points of leverage in this election and the people need to be stronger and more vocal about their aspirations for their country's future. I hope they do speak up and refuse to grant a failed government another few years to continue as they were. The alternative government may be better or worse, but at least they'll be given a chance to prove their worth.