When welfare stifles progress

I recently visited London to see friends and relatives and had a great time - especially shopping on Oxford street and having lunch at an amazing french restaurant near London bridge. I had the BEST crepe outside of Paris. My overall conclusion - London's a fabulous city to visit but not so great to live.

Partly because its ridiculously expensive, but primarily because it doesn't look like there is much upward mobility for low-income people. Immigrant communities in particular appear concentrated in low-income communities (esp. East London) and you don't see many non-whites in professional careers. There are probably many reasons for why this is the case, and I don't want to simplify the issue, but I want to make an observation about what I see as one of the key root causes - the overly generous UK welfare system.

I'll use Somali immigrants/refugees in the UK as an example. Many of the Somali Brits I encountered either dropped out of University or did not bother going to University at all. Most had low-wage jobs such as bus drivers or store clerks, or were completely unemployed. I was scratching my head - trying to figure out how they can live in such an expensive city with little or no revenue. 

Then I discovered that the UK welfare system is exceptionally robust, especially when compared to the American system. Almost every Somali family I encountered lived in government provided housing, and the families appeared dependent on this. Based on the small sample size I interacted with during my visit, I got the sense British Somalis are not seeking out higher education or good jobs because they feel comfortable with their quality of life under government support. This is sad for many reasons, especially because it will lead to a generations of young people who will never achieve their potential, educationally or professionally. 

I strongly believe governments should provide welfare for those in need because no developed nation should have citizens starving or left homeless. And besides, what are taxes for if not to provide services for the people! However making sure people sufficiently work for their betterment is also important, its what makes us human, and too much government support stifles this initiative.

A key public policy puzzle facing all developed governments is how to provide assistance to those who need it, but not create dependency or complacency. From what I saw, the UK is far from finding the right balance. While I disagree with most of the conservative party's platform, I hope David Cameron's administration will make strategic policy changes to cut down some of the overly generous assistance packages, while being careful not to harm families that rely on essential services. At the same time, more efforts should be made by the government to enable immigrants and other low-income people to achieve higher education, since that is the key towards more productive futures. 

Water boundary dispute

Somalia and Kenya have a complicated relationship - sometimes as good neighbors and friends, and other times as rivals. As Somalia re-builds and the government reasserts its national sovereignty, more conflicts may arise over territory and resources with Kenya, Ethiopia and other neighboring nations.

One conflict that has led to recent diplomatic tensions between Somalia and Kenya is the issue of the territorial water boundary. Somalia believes the water boundary is perpendicular to the coast line, which is in line with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) recommended standards. Both Somalia and Kenya ratified UNCLOS in 1989 however the two countries never reached final agreement on where the boundary lies. Kenya believes the water boundary should be along the line of latitude - similar to its boundary with Tanzania.

Rather than wait until agreement and legal clarity is reached, in early 2012 Kenya went ahead and granted oil and resource exploration contracts within the disputed water territory to three companies - Anadarko, Total and ENI. Somali government officials and others have responded with outrage - calling the contracts a violation of Somalia's national sovereignty. The Kenyan government appears to be ignoring these protests, however, it will need to come up with a more robust reply.

Given Somalia's instability and relative weakness over the past few years, it has been able to do little to prevent Kenya from selling rights within the disputed territory. With the new Somali government in place, however, more protests to the UN and others could put a dent in Kenya's plans. It appears Somalia has a stronger claim to the water, based on international law, however ultimately, a mutually agreeable solution will likely result in the division of the disputed territory between the two countries.

An imperfect resolution is better than no resolution at all. Ending this legal ambiguity would free up both countries to begin resource exploration and extraction.

Expectations too high for new president?

On September 10 Somalia elected a new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. This is exciting for a number of reasons: 1) he is a new face 2) he is not Sheikh Sharif 3) he has no corruption or criminal background. As a matter of fact, he seems to have a very promising background in education - as co-founder of SIMAD University in Mogadishu, in addition to his experience in development. I'm optimistic about Hassan Sheikh - and so are most Somalia watchers. Perhaps the optimism is currently so high, however, that it will be impossible for the new government to live up to expectations. This is similar to what President Obama faces today: it seems as though no matter how many accomplishments he makes in office, he is unable to reach the expectations of his supporters.


But getting back to the Somali election process, I'm confused as to how a seemingly good man came out on top in an election riddled with corruption, slander and intimidation. I hear he had some powerful supporters pushing him to the top but just who are they? If we're able to answer that question (which is no easy task) then we will better understand what Hassan Sheikh's presidency will bring, and whether he is at the steering wheel of his own government or not.

His first task as President will be to select a Prime Minister. There are lots of rumors out there about who the next PM will be but Hassan Sheikh appears to be careful and slow (its already been almost the maximum 30 days) in his selection process. This is good in the sense that he is properly vetting candidates, however, its already leading some to question his ability to be decisive and lead. Once the PM and cabinet ministers are named, however, a more full assessment of the government can be made.

the transition that keeps going

Somalia's transitional process seems to be never ending. The first transitional government (the Transitional National Government) took office in 2001, and here we are in the year 2012 and still have a transitional government in place. As a transition, most states do not recognize it as a full government, which weakens Somalia's ability to engage fully with the international community. The country needs a permanent government to take it forward, but unfortunately must rely on transitional governments (that are increasingly more corrupt and incompetent with each iteration) to lay the groundwork for a new government. 

August 20, 2012 is fast approach - the date by which a new government should be elected. The entire international community seems to be united in calling for the TFG to complete the transitional tasks and elect a new Parliament, which will then elect a new President and Speaker. Somalis around the world are hoping for a fair election and a new and stronger government to take office.

In true Somali form - every Somali man between the ages of 35-65 and who can afford a plane ticket to Mogadishu is running for the Presidency. There are only a handful, however, who have a shot at unseating President Sheikh Sharif -Ambassador Addow, Professor Samatar, Professor Badiyow etc. With his war chest he's accumulated over the years, and the alliances he's built with Speaker Sharif Hassan and other key players, it appears Sheikh Sharif is well placed to buy his way back to the Presidency. 

Just to be clear on my opinion, the reelection of Sheikh Sharif would be a tragedy for Somalia. This is  because today, things are looking up for Somalia. Al-Shabaab is being defeated, commercial activity is picking up, and people are returning back to Somalia from refugee camps, and even from cushy places in Europe and America. There is a sense of hope and renewal that needs to be enhanced by the next government. But almost every Somali I speak with says that this progress is happening in spite of President Sheikh Sharif, and not because of him. Somalis fear the reelection of Sheikh Sharif would mean hopes for progress will be shattered and the Somali government will continue to be run by a small group of corrupt individuals.

Interestingly, one businessman told me if Sheikh Sharif is re-elected, he will pull a lot of his money out of Somalia because he is afraid the economy will collapse.

For many Somalis, any face is better than the same failed face they have had as president for the past four years. Change is possible, Somalis need more positivity and an Obama-like "Yes We Can" campaign. Despite overwhelming odds against the desires of ordinary Somalis, they can have an impact on who becomes the next president. Ordinary Somalis are the Elders, the MPs, the media, the civil society groups - there are lots of points of leverage in this election and the people need to be stronger and more vocal about their aspirations for their country's future. I hope they do speak up and refuse to grant a failed government another few years to continue as they were. The alternative government may be better or worse, but at least they'll be given a chance to prove their worth. 

Khaatumo joins the many states of Somalia

Once upon a time there was Somalia. Then there was a civil war and the erosion of the state, and at the end of it, there was only the remnants of what was once a united country. Since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1990, several mini-states have popped up across Somalia, including the breakaway region in the northwest called Somaliland, the semi-autonomous region in the northeast called Puntland, and by 2012, dozens of smaller mini-states states including Galmudug, Himen and Heeb, and now the newest mini-state: Khatumo.

Khatumo is slightly different from other new states because it is a state within a breakaway state: Khatumo lies in territory claimed by Somaliland. The history of the state is complicated. Just as an overview, the region is claimed by Somaliland but the local community shares closer clan-ties with Somalis in Puntland and other parts of Somalia. The founders of Khatumo say the state was founded because the region is neglected by Somaliland and Puntland's government, and assert Khatumo is independent of both regional governments, and is part of the national Somali state. This got the Somaliland government so upset that they sent in the military to Khaatumo stronghold Buuhoodle in January, just after the state was announced, resulting in deadly clashes and even more tensions between the two states. Mediations are still stalled due to high tensions.

This is a pretty bizarre situation, given that Somaliland has fought for years for the right to peacefully succeed from the wider state. To respond so violently to Khaatumo's secession is ironic. I personally don't mind Khaatumo state - I think its just one of many local states that will make up the future federal Somali state. The goal now should be to make sure these various states do not hold narrow clan/local interests above a national interest, otherwise the system will collapse and the country will be weak. Some argue that to ask mini clan-based states to not hold clan interests paramount is paradoxical, and so staunchly oppose the new trend in mini-states. I still think its possible to have a strong federal system.

Its rumored that Khaatumo State officials were invited to next weeks Istanbul II conference on Somalia, which is causing outrage in Somaliland. The results of this conference will be important for Somalia as a whole, not just one region or another, and so Khaatumo's participation is important.

Global diaspora of ideas

Somalis are the new Jews. You can find Somalis in almost every country on earth - a truly global diaspora. I can't tell you how many times I discovered Somalis living in random remote countries like Morocco, Zambia, Thailand, Syria, Brazil, Mexico and in large numbers in China. I even have Somali relatives in Hungary, Vietnam and Norway. Hearing about these surprising location got me thinking - maybe there is a Somali in every country on earth. And what does this mean for Somalia once the country becomes stable?

While many Somalis are content in their adopted homelands, some still feel an itch to move back to Somalia and get involved in the country's progress somehow. Already there are large numbers of diaspora who have returned to the country and now lead major organizations, businesses, are Ministers in the government - even the Prime Minister, Abdiweli Mohamed, is from the diaspora. Buffalo New York to be exact. These are largely the daredevils in the diaspora who somehow see a greater interest (whether sincere or selfish) in going back to Somalia rather than staying abroad. But the vast majority still see the risks as too high given instability, even if they have a strong desire to go to the country.

When Somalia becomes peaceful, there is a good chance people will flood back to the country to start businesses in the largely untapped market, get involved in development work, try to become politicians, or just retire in the country (like my mother plans to do). This diaspora will struggle to communicate, not just because one guy will speak English, another Norwegian, another Arabic and the fourth Malay. They will struggle to communicate because the countries in which they were raised, educated and assimilated to have hugely different cultures and this can lead to conflict. An American Somali may return to Mogadishu with liberal ideas about the role of government in citizens' lives, while a Saudi Somali might have a more conservative approach. Of course one cannot generalize about how being from a country can affect a persons perspective, but one thing is for sure, there will be many many many diverse and conflicting perspectives that could potentially collide in Somalia very soon.

Whether Somalis embrace this diversity of ideas and harness it to achieve progress, rather than conflict, is what remains to be seen. A larger marketplace of ideas and perspectives could be a huge asset. Politicians and social leaders should begin thinking now about how to achieve a positive interaction that melds diverse ideas and brings out the best results.

Clan - love it or hate it, you need to include it

I enjoy talking about Somali politics and culture, but when people bring up clan and clanism, i tend to recoil. Its like a curse word when discussing Somalia because all I associate clan with is divisive politics.

But recently I met a Somali-Kenyan man with 30 years experience in the development field and he changed my perspective on clan. He made a compelling case based on his experience with numerous communities inside of Somalia for why clan is important, but he also recognized that is can be misused. He described how he witnessed community meetings where clan and sub-clan structures were used to mediate conflict and re-establish peace. Respected clan elders - sometimes called ugaas, aqil, sultan etc - discuss problems and refer to the xeer - a traditional somali legal code - to resolve these problems. These legitimate authorities - the elders and the xeer - have made conflict resolution possible throughout Somali history. Fast forward to today. This exceptionally intelligent man said the reason Somalia's political quagmire is still unresolved is because clan structures and traditional law is not made central to the mediation process. Rather, they play peripheral roles in favor of western-inspired government and legal systems.

His argument struck me as valid, and I think it could prove transformative if enough people hear it. Most people who work on or follow Somali politics (including myself) come from other countries and use very un-Somali political frameworks to analyze the Somali problem. Worst of all, we make recommendations to policy makers based on these non-Somali frameworks. Rather than using what exists - traditional clan laws - we are trying to create new institutions inspired by western structures. This will certainly take a long time, and may not even prove possible in the somali context.

He added that anyone who thinks clan can be ignored is foreign in their outlook, and out of touch with Somalia's reality. I think thats absolutely true, especially because diaspora tend to parachute into somali political discussions without much experience inside the country, but nevertheless feeling more qualified to speak to governance and other issues than people from within somalia. With a PhD in European history, why wouldn't you have everything necessary to find solutions for Somalia?

Ignoring clan though comes from a  good place. It comes from seeing how societies can be harmonious when the population is united on a national level, not a more narrow clan level. It also comes from seeing how clan has been and continues to be used in Somalia for harmful and divisive purposes by some leaders. But this fear of clan is based partly on ignorance of clan systems. Clan can be divisive, but it can also unite communities. It brings order and justice through traditional legal systems. It leads large numbers of people to act as a family - even when they have little blood ties.  The good in clan needs to be harnessed, and the bad controlled for.

So rather than ignore clan in any future thoughts on Somalia, i'll make sure to recognize it as one element necessary to understanding, and ultimately resolving, problems facing Somalia.

Getting Somalia Wrong

I just came across this book review by Magnus Taylor about BBC journalist Mary Harper's new book, Getting Somalia Wrong. This is definitely a book worth reading. 


"Harper's book has grown out of 20 years working on and in the country, and functions not as a conventional history of Somalia, but rather as a discussion of several key themes central to its present state. Pleasantly surprising was the thread of black humour that runs throughout, created by the description of several historical events that exemplify an admirable, and slightly crazed, Somali independence of spirit.

First is the story of the 'Mad Mullah' - warrior poet Seyyid Mohamed Abdulle Hassan - who fought the British to a standstill in the early 20th century and described himself as 'a stubborn he-camel' from whom the British would get 'war and nothing else.' When his troops killed a British commander sent to pursue him, he penned 'a brutal celebratory poem' detailing how his dead body would be 'left to the carrion eaters.'

In a neat historical parallel, eighty years later, warlord General Mohamed Farah Aideed had a $20,000 bounty placed on his head by Admiral Jonathan Howe - commander of the US 'humanitarian' mission Restore Hope. Aideed responded by promising to pay $20,000 to anyone who brought him the actual head of Admiral Howe. Whilst such violent reactions might seem anathema to us, they underscore a fundamental self-confidence that Harper clearly respects. Long-time scholar of Somalia, Ioan Lewis, puts it another way - Somalis have 'an open contempt for other people.'

What Harper is trying to do is to resurrect a basic level of respect in discussions about Somalia. From its portrayal as a lawless place, riven with fundamentalist Islam, and latterly suffering the effects of a terrible famine, she argues that these aren't the only things that happen in the country. Her real interest, I think, was in profiling modern-day Somalia where 'more than two decades of conflict and crisis have forced Somalis to invent alternative political and economic systems.' These innovations in the economy, the livestock trade, money transfers and telecommunications reveal something that will be new to many readers - successful Somalis making money. She also clearly admires the political developments in Somaliland - the northern territory that seceded from the Somalia after the collapse of the country's central government in 1991. Still unrecognised by the international community, Somaliland has slowly developed its own hybrid democratic system with some traditional structures still in place, and is generally peaceful and heading in the right direction.


In conversation Harper refers to Somalia as being "like a complex mathematical equation" - the moving parts being the country's bewildering clan system, and although some Somalis reportedly deny its modern-day importance, Harper "would take any Somali on who said the clan system was not relevant." Whilst clans were suppressed under Siad Barre's pseudo-socialist regime, and their resurgence in the 1990s is sometimes seen as the cause of the civil war, they remain the shifting bedrock upon which Somali society is built. I ask what she thinks defeat of the Islamist group Al-Shabaab would do for the country. The answer is perhaps surprising - far from ending the violence, Harper predicts that Somalia might, at least initially, take a step backwards, as the more ingrained divisions would resurface and regional clan-based groups take up arms again against each other. Whilst she deals harshly with the violent and reactionary Islam of Al-Shabaab, she states that their presence has softened the influence of the clan in Somalia. Whilst this has been achieved "largely through fear," she also argues that there might be some things to learn from this about the way Somali society works."


See full review here: http://allafrica.com/stories/201201301453.html