The events unfolding in Egypt are troubling and potentially catastrophic if not brought under control soon. The death toll is steadily rising as millions of pro and anti Morsi supporters continue to protest in the streets.
I read an article today to try to better understand what is happening because I find it difficult to imagine how a democratically elected leader can be pushed out of office after just one year in power. I knew it could not simply be the work of the protesters in Tahrir square. What I learned is that a lot of the government bureaucratic machine in Egypt, formed during the Mubarak era and inherited by Morsi, are still led by opponents to Morsi's government. Consequently, many services, such as subsidized energy resources and security (police) were not functioning efficiently during Morsi's year-long tenure, leading to anger among the populace. This was a predictable domestic challenge for the new government.
Even more concerning, I learned that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already announced support for the recently announced interim government, and have pledged billion of dollars in foreign aid. Meanwhile, Qatar and Turkey were, according to this NYT article, key backers of the Morsi regime. What this means is that multiple regional powers are getting involved in a very major way in Egypt's domestic political issues. This is dangerous because, like in Somalia, when foreign influences get involved in support or opposition of political factions, differences exacerbate and a negotiated agreement becomes less possible. Remember the Aideed vs. Ali Mahdi competition which resulted in the civil war? The tragedy is this usually ends in a lot of bloodshed.
Egyptians need to resolve Egypt's problems without being held down by regional power politics. President Morsi was elected democratically, so if the new government wants to maintain legitimacy and stability, it will need to hold immediate free elections. Only then can we gauge the will of the Egyptian people.
