A new cabinet, a new hope?

Somalia now has a new and largely diaspora cabinet, with 7 Americans, including the prime minister. This is exciting for a lot of people because it represents a departure from business as usual. The same corrupt faces who have made a living off of Somali politics have been deprived- at least in name- of the powers associated with being ministers. Of course that still leaves the bloated parliament with its many unsavory characters in the mix. Whether the current transitional federal government accomplishes anything in the next eight months, which is the duration of their mandate, depends partly on whether parliament will cooperate- unlikely- and whether the international community will provide them with the necessary support- also unlikely. The bright spot in all of this is that hopefully more diaspora and non-diaspora Somalis who have not made careers off of politicking will feel more comfortable stepping forward with new ideas. Because if anything is clear regarding the Somalia debacle, its that fresh ideas and fresh faces are desperately needed.

A uniquely Somali love story- Part 2

After weeks of traveling and having his bag stolen from right under him as he slept, Hussein decided to stop for a few days in a border town where Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya meet. The town was bustling with commerce and trade between the neighboring nations, and he was able to find work with a local export company. The pay was not significant enough for him to consider settling, and so in a few months he was on a bus heading down to Nairobi.

As Hussein recounted his story to me, I noticed a sudden change in his tone and emotion when he described the arrival in Kenya- as if this was the part of the story he was waiting to get to. As if the earlier parts of his story were long, painful and tedious, and he'd rather not dwell on it.

With newfound excitement, he described his arrival in Eastleigh, the Somali district in Nairobi, as a joyous sort of homecoming. Many of his friends and family had settled there, and so after months of lonely and unpredictable travel, he suddenly had the warmth and hospitality of those he knew and loved. Just moments after getting off the bus in Eastleigh, he ran into two friends from his childhood in Somalia. They immediately offered to host him until he located relatives and other friends. Suddenly, for the first time in months, he had a warm bed to sleep on and did not have to worry about whether he could afford to stay another night. Shortly after arriving in Eastleigh, Hussein was offered a job at a friends store. Hussein created a life for himself in Eastleigh, eventually finding a better job as an english teacher in a secondary school; a job that gave him room and board.

Two years later, on what was seemingly a typical day, a friend of Hussein's told him he heard that someone he might know what in town. "Who?" Hussein asked, not expecting what he was about to hear. The friend told him Hawa, Husseins old high school sweetheart from his hometown in somalia, was in Nairobi. Hawa and Hussein were once in love and speaking of marriage and a family when the civil war suddenly erupted, pushing them to different corners of the globe. That afternoon Hussein discovered that Hawa had gone to the United States and began working as a nurse. Hussein was proud of her for escaping the difficulties back home, but he also felt saddened to think that surely, after so long, she is already married. Even he had been briefly married until the suddent and tragic death of his young wife. 

The friend offered to call Hawa and set up a chance for the two to meet. To Husseins surprise, she agreed and the two planned to meet downtown to "catch up" on life. As Hussein describes it, it wasnt long into their conversation when they both mentioned they were single, and something clearly clicked for the two. They had a mutual feeling that this was meant to be, and that the unlikely chance of finding each other, during her brief visit to Nairobi, actually occurred.

The rest, as they say, is history. They had a huge wedding celebration in Nairobi, moved to the U.S., and the two recently had their first child, a baby girl.

A uniquely Somali love story - Part 1

The life stories of Somali refugees are the most complicated, tragic, but hopeful stories you'll ever come across. I've heard Somalis describe just about every route possible in their journey to the U.S., and the risk and ingenuity involved is astounding. I've never come across a Somali family that didn't have stops in at least one or two countries, some stopping in as many as four or five nations, before reaching their destination in the U.S. or elsewhere.

But today I heard a story unlike the others in that it was one that had a highly improbably and lovely twist at the end. I met a man named Hussein who lives in Virginia. He came to the U.S. at the start of this year, so he's still adjusting to life here. The other day he asked me what daylight savings was, and I had a surprisingly hard time trying to explain it. Hussein is a really smart man, tall, very thin and attractive. He has a very calm and peaceful demeanor about him, so much so that you'd never guess the struggles he's had to overcome.

In 1990, the situation in Somalia deteriorated dramatically, and Hussein began working for the U.N. as an interpreter. The UNISOM mission moved in and didnt leave until 1995. He worked closely with a Malaysian UN commander and the two developed a close friendship. Before the UN pulled out (having failed to create peace) the commander encouraged Hussein to leave Somalia for Djibouti, and promised that his brother-in-law at the Malaysian Embassy in Djibouti would give him a visa to Malaysia. The Commander even hand wrote a letter in the Malaysian language and encouraged Hussein to give that letter to his brother-in-law, just to ensure confidence.

Hussein was unsure whether he wanted to make the journey to Djibouti so he just held on the the visa recommendation letter. When the U.N. completely pulled out of Somalia, Hussain was jobless and struggled to make ends meet. That's when he spoke with his family and told them he was going to make the trek to Djibouti and would hopefully reach Malaysia to find work. With their blessing, he traveled alone into Ethiopia and through to Djbouti. All he had on him was a few changes of clothing, $600 and the letter for the Malaysian embassy. In Djibouti, he spent nearly a hundred dollars on his first day just on food and a hotel room. He was down to $500. The next morning he rushed to the Malaysian embassy to seek the visa. After being turned away, he complained and eventually managed to get in and see the Commander's brother-in-law. The man said Hussein could get a visa, but that it would take three months and cost $400 dollars.

This was a huge blow to Hussein. He couldn't afford to wait three months especially since the cost of living in the city was so high. To top it all off, the Djiboutians- although they are ethnically Somali- were hostile to mainland Somalis, so he didn't expect to find a job. He spent that day and night thinking about whether he could wait, asking around for jobs, and thinking about how he could pay for all the costs associated with this prized visa. After drawing the conclusion that he couldn't stay, he got rid of his hopes of moving to Malaysia and caught the first bus out of town. He traveled through Ethiopia to its border with Somalia and Kenya. En route to the town, he slept on a train, using his only travel bag as a pillow. When he woke up at his destination, he discovered he had the bag stolen from right under him. And so he lost all his belongings except the cash he had strapped to his body. By this point he had $300 on him, and said he felt more alone and vulnerable than ever.

(See part 2)

Psychology in War

I was speaking with a recent refugee from Somalia today. Its so facinating when I speak with new refugees because I sense that I immediately give them full credibility over all things Somalia related, an unwise tendency of mine. Everyone (including myself) who looks at the situation from the outside doesnt get it, we're just working with secondhand information and a lot of guesswork. But the new refugees, now they surely understand the situation best. Of course this is not always the case, but I still love asking questions about what life is like in Somalia today whenever I meet someone who recently left the country.

 

Today I met a woman who left Somalia three years ago, and my conversation with her was so facinating. She had a scary way of describing the mental condition of Somalis today. She said that in 1990 just as the war broke out, the people were afraid and struggled to make a living. When things did not get better and conflict spread in the mid ninety's, there was a lot of mental disorders taking hold, people unable to cope with the drastic change in their surroundings and the instability.

Today, however, she says people are so used to the violence "you can even find people who don't look twice when they see a dead body, its become a normal thing." She said this so matter-of-factly that it made it all the more scary.

Her tragic description makes me want to look into the psychological impacts of this war more deeply. I'm wondering what type of government or leader can take hold of power in an environment so prone to conflict, and a population so used to it. What are the psychological factors that governance needs to take into account?

From bad to worse

Tragic news out of Somalia:

" A suicide bombing in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu, left at least 32 people dead. Six of the victims were members or the embattled Somali parliament, and the government blamed the Al Qaeda-linked insurgent group, Al Shabab." -CSM

Just when it looked like things couldn't get worse in Somalia, they did. What will be the fallout of this deadly bombing is yet unclear, but what is clear is that things cannot continue on the current course. From the vantage point of residents of Mogadishu, the city is under siege. No progress has been made on minimizing the threat of Al-Shabab, or in creating a legitimate central government. The current strategy of the TFG and its outside allies must change.

At this point what is essential is a Somali-led process, one that is not interfered in (visibly) by outside actors/governments. Propping up "friendly" governments has not been a successful strategy, probably because, as it turns out, governments need at least a minimum threshold of popular support before they can function effectively. And the only way to defeat Al-Shabab is to provide a better option for the public, not a better option for foreign governments.

I'm nevertheless confident that things will get better in Somalia very soon. And so, as Somalis look for a relatively popular government to fill the current leadership vacuum, I'm hoping the international community will learn from the mistakes of the past and avoid backing unpopular leaders that prove unable to govern, but rather, take a step back and let Somalis resolve this issue internally.

AID

There is a lot of debate lately on the effectiveness of foreign aid. There are extremes in this debate, both of which make sense to a degree, which tells me that the answer is somewhere in the middle. There is the Jeffrey Sachs school that says aid is essential to lifting countries and populations out of poverty because it saves lives and fosters growth. And there is the increasingly popular view of Dambisa Moyo, that says that aid is detrimental to countries because it isn't sustainable and leads to unaccountable governance.

Two of my favorite economists seem to think aid is not desirable for development: Paul Colliers and William Easterly. The more I read about the issue, the more I think that the effectiveness of aid depends primarily on the quality of the government and institutions. Whether a nation can take aid money and make good use of it, or whether politicians pocket it and/or use it to consolidate their rule, depends on the leaders themselves. In places like Rwanda, the government is able to take advantage of foreign aid to develop infrastructure and strengthen institutions. This can be seen as a success story, howeveer, the government of Paul Kagame has recently been accused of attacking his opposition, and perhaps aid has made this targeting more possible.

Aid may be an enemy of democracy because it can so easily be used by governments to prop themselves up. But aid can also be a friend of democracy by enabling weak governments to carry out the sorts of reforms and development plans necessary to create strong governance. So ultimately, as long as aid is given to governments and organizations without their being held accountable for progress, the impact of aid will be weak and unclear at best.

Somalia's war as a bargaining failure needing a peace-broker

I firmly believe war is not the natural state of humans, but that war is a consequence of a bargaining failure between states or parties. In Somalia, there were many attempts at resolving the conflict before the 1990 civil war started but they all failed. Lack of understanding about the other side's capabilities, intent and capacity made it difficult for the clan leaders to agree on a settlement. After an agreement between the conflicting parties fell apart in 1992, the U.S. military entered Somalia, primarily to ensure aid convoys reached intended populations, but they also represented a guarantor for a new agreement in the eyes of Somali warlords. The next agreement reached outlasted all of the others because it had a credible commitment in the U.S. military presence.

When the U.S.’s UNITAF force withdrew and was replaced by the U.N.’s UNISOM II, the credibility of the force diminished (in the eyes of the warlords) because of the perceived weakness of the U.N. Further complicating matters, the U.N. adopted a strategy of siding with one warlord and targeting the other, leading to frequent firefights and the disastrous battle of Mogadishu.

A Credible Peace-broker

This example from recent history can be a valuable lesson as we think about whether a military force can be effective in Somalia today. The make-up of the force, as well as its mission on the ground, determine whether it can play the role of a guarantor of a peace agreement, or whether it will simply become a party to the conflict.

In 1992, the U.S. was the most credible guarantor of peace because of its military might and its neutrality among the warring factions. Today, however, the U.S. cannot play that role. The disastrous consequences following the Ethiopian occupation reveal that Ethiopia cannot play such a role. And it appears Uganda, too, can no longer play a neutral role now that it has been engaged in combat in Mogadishu for so long. 

The question many policymakers are wondering is who, if anyone, can play the role of peace broker in Somalia? That’s a difficult question to answer until there is more clarity about the ambitions of Al-Shabab, and whether they would see any party as an acceptable force. There needs to be a better grasp on how the objectives of the organization are shaped and change, and where the zone of possible agreement lies between the TFG and al-Shabab. Until then, we will continue to attempt to create resolutions that end in just another bargaining failure.