Jubilance of recognition

In January 2013 the U.S. government officially recognized the Somali government, following 21 years of no recognition. This is big news because it opens the way for increased engagement in Somalia by the U.S., international financial institutions and, ultimately, many other countries that will follow the U.S.'s lead. By recognizing the Somali government, the U.S. has essentially granted legitimacy and placed a degree of faith in the new Somali government to deliver for Somalia. Thus, the recognition is a major policy success for the Somali government, and will open many doors.

More importantly perhaps, it is a symbolic success. I say it is more important as a symbol because a key reason for the failure of multiple Somali governments is the lack of legitimacy and trust in the government by the population. President Hassan Sheikh's government, however, has so far maintained a high degree of popularity, cutting across clan and regional differences. As many Somalis both inside and outside the country already supported the new government, they saw the U.S. decision to recognize the government as another example of success by the government.

President Hassan Sheikh went to Washington and met with President Obama and Secretary Clinton, just as they announced the recognition. He subsequently held multiple events in Somali diaspora communities, including Minnesota. A friend who attended the President's event in Virginia said it was a huge event, with roughly 400 people in attendance - an unprecedented turnout. She said she met some Somalis who came from as far as New York and North Carolina to see the President's speech. She said as Hassan Sheikh spoke, he was frequently interrupted by a jubilant audience as they broke into patriotic songs. Songs that she said many Somalis had not heard in years, including Qolaba Calankeey. They also sang the national anthem, Soomaliya Toosoo, multiple times during the presidents speech. Flags were waving and there was an overwhelming sense of hope in the air. People liked what Hassan Sheikh had to say, particularly his pledge to focus on security and justice.

Interestingly Hassan Sheikh mentioned in his speech that rumors about his government should not be given credence, and he said some elements seek to destroy the popularity of the government through false reports. Maintaining the popularity of the government is important but if President Hassan Sheikh really seeks to maintain it, his government will need to show tangible successes. Because if history tells us anything, its that the Somali population can easily lose faith in an official or system if it does not deliver.

ICAO CACAS continues to take Somali national revenue

All nations have a right to control their airspace. But currently in Somalia, this right is being challenged by a little known aviation authority.

Shortly after the Somali government collapsed, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) decided to help Somalia manage its airspace, and recruited ICAO, the International Civil Aviation Organization to help provide this service. UNDP and ICAO established the Caretaker Authority for Civil Aviation in Somalia, known as CACAS. The small office has been based in Nairobi since 1997 and has collected aviation fees on behalf of the Somali government, and the money is supposed to be put into a trust fund for Somalia's future authority. The mandate also allows for the revenue to be used for operations (CACAS salaries and expenses), as well as towards infrastructure development so that the inevitable transition from CACAS control to Somali control can take place.

In the past 15 years of its existence, however, there is little evidence that CACAS has done anything to build Somali capacity so that a transition can take place. CACAS has actually been doing the opposite, strengthening its own grip on Somali civil aviation. Why? Because it is a lucrative authority to have. Airliners and nations have paid tens of millions of dollars to CACAS in civil aviation fees over the past 15 years, and this money is largely unaccounted for, apart from the lavish salaries the employees receive. To ICAO's credit, the international body has recently run audits of CACAS's finances and discovered problems. It doesnt appear, however, that ICAO has done anything to fix these problems.

Its time for CACAS to be closed down. Somalia has a new central government, and President Hassan Sheikh has already publicly expressed an interest in reclaiming Somalia's civil aviation from the controversial CACAS body. The Somali government, as well as the Somaliland and Puntland regional governments, already provide civil aviation services and collect civil aviation fees for planes that land in Somali territory.  This means they have some capacity already, and are able to do what CACAS is currently doing more widely. This is not to say they couldn't benefit from some infrastructure support. CACAS argues there is no clear government in Somalia - apparently treating regional governments as equal in legitimacy to the central government. Central governments hold control of civil aviation authorities, but can discuss details of operations and revenue with regional governments.

Somali control over its own civil aviation will be a major victory for the new government for political reasons, but also because it desperately needs domestic revenue.  CACAS, however, will surely fight to delay such a transition, just as any organization would fight for its own survival. Nevertheless its mandate was temporary and if the international community, particularly ICAO and the UN, drag its feet on this issue, the Somali government and population will continue to perceive it as an effort to strip Somalia of its sovereignty and national revenue.

When welfare stifles progress

I recently visited London to see friends and relatives and had a great time - especially shopping on Oxford street and having lunch at an amazing french restaurant near London bridge. I had the BEST crepe outside of Paris. My overall conclusion - London's a fabulous city to visit but not so great to live.

Partly because its ridiculously expensive, but primarily because it doesn't look like there is much upward mobility for low-income people. Immigrant communities in particular appear concentrated in low-income communities (esp. East London) and you don't see many non-whites in professional careers. There are probably many reasons for why this is the case, and I don't want to simplify the issue, but I want to make an observation about what I see as one of the key root causes - the overly generous UK welfare system.

I'll use Somali immigrants/refugees in the UK as an example. Many of the Somali Brits I encountered either dropped out of University or did not bother going to University at all. Most had low-wage jobs such as bus drivers or store clerks, or were completely unemployed. I was scratching my head - trying to figure out how they can live in such an expensive city with little or no revenue. 

Then I discovered that the UK welfare system is exceptionally robust, especially when compared to the American system. Almost every Somali family I encountered lived in government provided housing, and the families appeared dependent on this. Based on the small sample size I interacted with during my visit, I got the sense British Somalis are not seeking out higher education or good jobs because they feel comfortable with their quality of life under government support. This is sad for many reasons, especially because it will lead to a generations of young people who will never achieve their potential, educationally or professionally. 

I strongly believe governments should provide welfare for those in need because no developed nation should have citizens starving or left homeless. And besides, what are taxes for if not to provide services for the people! However making sure people sufficiently work for their betterment is also important, its what makes us human, and too much government support stifles this initiative.

A key public policy puzzle facing all developed governments is how to provide assistance to those who need it, but not create dependency or complacency. From what I saw, the UK is far from finding the right balance. While I disagree with most of the conservative party's platform, I hope David Cameron's administration will make strategic policy changes to cut down some of the overly generous assistance packages, while being careful not to harm families that rely on essential services. At the same time, more efforts should be made by the government to enable immigrants and other low-income people to achieve higher education, since that is the key towards more productive futures. 

Water boundary dispute

Somalia and Kenya have a complicated relationship - sometimes as good neighbors and friends, and other times as rivals. As Somalia re-builds and the government reasserts its national sovereignty, more conflicts may arise over territory and resources with Kenya, Ethiopia and other neighboring nations.

One conflict that has led to recent diplomatic tensions between Somalia and Kenya is the issue of the territorial water boundary. Somalia believes the water boundary is perpendicular to the coast line, which is in line with the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) recommended standards. Both Somalia and Kenya ratified UNCLOS in 1989 however the two countries never reached final agreement on where the boundary lies. Kenya believes the water boundary should be along the line of latitude - similar to its boundary with Tanzania.

Rather than wait until agreement and legal clarity is reached, in early 2012 Kenya went ahead and granted oil and resource exploration contracts within the disputed water territory to three companies - Anadarko, Total and ENI. Somali government officials and others have responded with outrage - calling the contracts a violation of Somalia's national sovereignty. The Kenyan government appears to be ignoring these protests, however, it will need to come up with a more robust reply.

Given Somalia's instability and relative weakness over the past few years, it has been able to do little to prevent Kenya from selling rights within the disputed territory. With the new Somali government in place, however, more protests to the UN and others could put a dent in Kenya's plans. It appears Somalia has a stronger claim to the water, based on international law, however ultimately, a mutually agreeable solution will likely result in the division of the disputed territory between the two countries.

An imperfect resolution is better than no resolution at all. Ending this legal ambiguity would free up both countries to begin resource exploration and extraction.

Expectations too high for new president?

On September 10 Somalia elected a new president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. This is exciting for a number of reasons: 1) he is a new face 2) he is not Sheikh Sharif 3) he has no corruption or criminal background. As a matter of fact, he seems to have a very promising background in education - as co-founder of SIMAD University in Mogadishu, in addition to his experience in development. I'm optimistic about Hassan Sheikh - and so are most Somalia watchers. Perhaps the optimism is currently so high, however, that it will be impossible for the new government to live up to expectations. This is similar to what President Obama faces today: it seems as though no matter how many accomplishments he makes in office, he is unable to reach the expectations of his supporters.


But getting back to the Somali election process, I'm confused as to how a seemingly good man came out on top in an election riddled with corruption, slander and intimidation. I hear he had some powerful supporters pushing him to the top but just who are they? If we're able to answer that question (which is no easy task) then we will better understand what Hassan Sheikh's presidency will bring, and whether he is at the steering wheel of his own government or not.

His first task as President will be to select a Prime Minister. There are lots of rumors out there about who the next PM will be but Hassan Sheikh appears to be careful and slow (its already been almost the maximum 30 days) in his selection process. This is good in the sense that he is properly vetting candidates, however, its already leading some to question his ability to be decisive and lead. Once the PM and cabinet ministers are named, however, a more full assessment of the government can be made.

the transition that keeps going

Somalia's transitional process seems to be never ending. The first transitional government (the Transitional National Government) took office in 2001, and here we are in the year 2012 and still have a transitional government in place. As a transition, most states do not recognize it as a full government, which weakens Somalia's ability to engage fully with the international community. The country needs a permanent government to take it forward, but unfortunately must rely on transitional governments (that are increasingly more corrupt and incompetent with each iteration) to lay the groundwork for a new government. 

August 20, 2012 is fast approach - the date by which a new government should be elected. The entire international community seems to be united in calling for the TFG to complete the transitional tasks and elect a new Parliament, which will then elect a new President and Speaker. Somalis around the world are hoping for a fair election and a new and stronger government to take office.

In true Somali form - every Somali man between the ages of 35-65 and who can afford a plane ticket to Mogadishu is running for the Presidency. There are only a handful, however, who have a shot at unseating President Sheikh Sharif -Ambassador Addow, Professor Samatar, Professor Badiyow etc. With his war chest he's accumulated over the years, and the alliances he's built with Speaker Sharif Hassan and other key players, it appears Sheikh Sharif is well placed to buy his way back to the Presidency. 

Just to be clear on my opinion, the reelection of Sheikh Sharif would be a tragedy for Somalia. This is  because today, things are looking up for Somalia. Al-Shabaab is being defeated, commercial activity is picking up, and people are returning back to Somalia from refugee camps, and even from cushy places in Europe and America. There is a sense of hope and renewal that needs to be enhanced by the next government. But almost every Somali I speak with says that this progress is happening in spite of President Sheikh Sharif, and not because of him. Somalis fear the reelection of Sheikh Sharif would mean hopes for progress will be shattered and the Somali government will continue to be run by a small group of corrupt individuals.

Interestingly, one businessman told me if Sheikh Sharif is re-elected, he will pull a lot of his money out of Somalia because he is afraid the economy will collapse.

For many Somalis, any face is better than the same failed face they have had as president for the past four years. Change is possible, Somalis need more positivity and an Obama-like "Yes We Can" campaign. Despite overwhelming odds against the desires of ordinary Somalis, they can have an impact on who becomes the next president. Ordinary Somalis are the Elders, the MPs, the media, the civil society groups - there are lots of points of leverage in this election and the people need to be stronger and more vocal about their aspirations for their country's future. I hope they do speak up and refuse to grant a failed government another few years to continue as they were. The alternative government may be better or worse, but at least they'll be given a chance to prove their worth. 

Khaatumo joins the many states of Somalia

Once upon a time there was Somalia. Then there was a civil war and the erosion of the state, and at the end of it, there was only the remnants of what was once a united country. Since the collapse of the Siad Barre regime in 1990, several mini-states have popped up across Somalia, including the breakaway region in the northwest called Somaliland, the semi-autonomous region in the northeast called Puntland, and by 2012, dozens of smaller mini-states states including Galmudug, Himen and Heeb, and now the newest mini-state: Khatumo.

Khatumo is slightly different from other new states because it is a state within a breakaway state: Khatumo lies in territory claimed by Somaliland. The history of the state is complicated. Just as an overview, the region is claimed by Somaliland but the local community shares closer clan-ties with Somalis in Puntland and other parts of Somalia. The founders of Khatumo say the state was founded because the region is neglected by Somaliland and Puntland's government, and assert Khatumo is independent of both regional governments, and is part of the national Somali state. This got the Somaliland government so upset that they sent in the military to Khaatumo stronghold Buuhoodle in January, just after the state was announced, resulting in deadly clashes and even more tensions between the two states. Mediations are still stalled due to high tensions.

This is a pretty bizarre situation, given that Somaliland has fought for years for the right to peacefully succeed from the wider state. To respond so violently to Khaatumo's secession is ironic. I personally don't mind Khaatumo state - I think its just one of many local states that will make up the future federal Somali state. The goal now should be to make sure these various states do not hold narrow clan/local interests above a national interest, otherwise the system will collapse and the country will be weak. Some argue that to ask mini clan-based states to not hold clan interests paramount is paradoxical, and so staunchly oppose the new trend in mini-states. I still think its possible to have a strong federal system.

Its rumored that Khaatumo State officials were invited to next weeks Istanbul II conference on Somalia, which is causing outrage in Somaliland. The results of this conference will be important for Somalia as a whole, not just one region or another, and so Khaatumo's participation is important.