There are currently five men who are claiming to be president of newly founded Jubbaland State in southern Somalia. This was at last count but the number could have gone up. What is happening in Jubbaland is confusing for a lot of people, including myself, but it gets back to the fundamental problem of Somalia's political development.
Ultimately, Somalia will have a federal system of governance, with regional governments taking on key leadership roles. Gone is the era of Siyad Barre-style strong central government. We now are in the era of Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, Hiiraan State, Himeen and Heeb, Khaatumo, Jubbaland etc etc. But as governance decentralizes, the country still needs centralization for key diplomatic, security and other national-level functions.
The current government of President Hassan Sheikh appears to be serious about realizing a viable federal state system in Somalia. The Prime Minister and President frequently visit the regions and seek to be involved in dialogue on local issues, from Somaliland to Jubbaland. Jubbaland in recent months has become a huge mess for the federal government and everyone else involved. From the time that Kenyan troops entered Jubbaland in late 2011, it was clear that this piece of strategic land would be contentious.
At play in Jubbaland are numerous interests, including diverse clan interests, Kenyan, Ethiopian and IGAD involvement, and the central government's role. As the various actors push and pull for leverage in the formation of Jubbaland, tensions are surfacing and are causing problems in Mogadishu. This months effort to remove the Prime Minister through a no-confidence vote in Parliament is linked to the Jubbaland dispute. With five recently declared presidents of Jubbaland, its clear that talks to form a representative government have failed. IGAD (Kenya and Ethiopia) has its preferred candidate, who it is supporting vigorously. Clan tensions as well as regional tensions are flaring up.
Ideally the federal government should be taking the lead in organizing the Jubbaland political process. IGAD has had a unusually high level of involvement in the Jubbaland issue, organizing multiple conferences. IGAD is a regional actor and should respect the sovereignty of the Somali government, and should not side-step the federal government to push a particular candidate. The federal government needs to be more assertive in its role and quell the confusion in Jubbaland before it flares up into greater fragmentation, or even violence.
