Somalia the Playground

I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories. They tend to explain major events with simplistic and cynical reasoning, and I tend to have more belief in the basic good nature of human beings to believe in the vastness of most conspiracy theories.


But then last week Kenya invaded Somalia. This must be the biggest political/military blunder since the Ethiopian military invaded the country in 2006. Somalis, especially those who have a tendency towards conspiracy, are shouting off the rooftops. A pattern has developed, they claim. Every time Somalia shows a hint of stability, some neighbor invades the country, putting the peace process and development efforts back to square one.


Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 with the expressed purpose of fighting "terrorists." The invasion successfully pushed out of power the Union of Islamic Courts, the first governance system to bring stability, rule of law, and safety to the population in over a decade. Business was booming, the diaspora was returning to the country to rebuild homes and the sense of hope was never so high. But with the swift movement of the Ethiopian military, the UIC disintegrated and all that remained was a militia that branded itself al-Shabaab. Ethiopia's invasion helped to create al-Shabaab, and after two years of devastating conflict, Ethiopian troops pulled out of Somalia, leaving the country largely in al-Shabaab's control.


Fast-forward to today: Just as al-Shabaab became weaker than ever, as a consequence of the drought, decreasing finances and overall disillusionment with the organizations authoritarian and draconian rule, Kenya decides to invade. The invasion followed the kidnapping of a French tourist from northeast Kenya's coastal town of Lamu, and the Kenyan government announced that it would not tolerate Somali rebels crossing the border and wreaking havoc in Kenya. But the impact of this invasion will be far-reaching and resounding for  years to come if Kenya does not pull out soon. Already, al-Shabaab is crying out its new rallying cry - to fight the infidel Kenyans that are invading, raping, pillaging and bombing Somali brethren. This was similar to the information campaign launched during Ethiopia's invasion and unfortunately, it will almost certainly resonate with ordinary Somalis who until recently despised al-Shabaab. The insurgent/terrorist group will now be seen as the defenders of the homeland once again.